Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1729 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1729 American Flight history →	TUL 07:00	CLT 10:30	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 2657 American	TUL 14:52	CLT 18:17	24%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 31m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	5h 13m	99%	84%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Denver	DEN 09:51 → CLT 15:18UA 2231	8h 18m	98%	84%
United Details →	TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa	3h 24m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	8h 02m	98%	82%
American Details →	TUL 06:02 → DFW 07:24AA 1090	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:59 → CLT 13:41AA 2493	6h 39m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 52m	96%	81%
American Details →	TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → CLT 14:46AA 3021	7h 11m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132	6h 30m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON