tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 5128 at 16:23, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5128 American flown by PSA Flight history → TUL 16:23 DCA 20:10 29% 10% 2.2% 90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 11m Houston IAH 07:54 → DCA 12:18UA 512 6h 18m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 5h 47m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 59m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:02 → DFW 07:24AA 1090 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 5h 40m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 03m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 48m Chicago ORD 10:36 → DCA 13:45AA 1200 6h 10m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 8h 31m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 12m 96% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON