Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2242 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2242 TUL 06:06 → DEN 06:52 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5914 TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2242 Southwest	TUL 06:06	DEN 06:52	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5667 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 06:00	DEN 07:00	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 1435 United	TUL 08:58	DEN 09:49	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 5276 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 11:44	DEN 12:44	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 2639 Southwest	TUL 13:46	DEN 14:32	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4201 Southwest	TUL 19:16	DEN 20:03	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5673 SkyWest	TUL 19:09	DEN 20:06	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5914 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 17:10	DEN 18:10	24%	6%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON