Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3821 at 04:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3821 TUL 04:57 → DFW 06:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2830 TUL 18:23 → DFW 19:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3821 Envoy	TUL 04:57	DFW 06:14	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 1090 American Flight history →	TUL 06:02	DFW 07:24	9%	4%	1.2%	91%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	TUL 10:48	DFW 12:13	13%	5%	1.0%	80%
AA 3095 American Flight history →	TUL 07:47	DFW 09:12	14%	4%	1.2%	75%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	TUL 12:43	DFW 14:05	17%	6%	1.1%	83%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	TUL 16:21	DFW 17:51	24%	9%	1.1%	70%
AA 2830 American	TUL 18:23	DFW 19:46	30%	9%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON