Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1049 TUL 07:02 → IAH 09:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6015 TUL 14:01 → IAH 16:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1049 United	TUL 07:02	IAH 09:02	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5748 SkyWest	TUL 09:04	IAH 10:47	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 6015 SkyWest	TUL 14:01	IAH 16:00	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 4041 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 05:00	IAH 06:43	6%	1%	0.0%	94%
UA 3984 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 07:00	IAH 08:46	9%	3%	0.0%	91%
UA 4007 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 09:00	IAH 10:47	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
UA 4290 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 16:59	IAH 18:54	15%	5%	1.8%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON