Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4438 at 06:41, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4438 Southwest	TUL 06:41	LAS 07:39	3%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Denver	DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316	5h 07m	96%	88%
United Details →	TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 13m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	8h 02m	98%	84%
United Details →	TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa	3h 33m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 37m	100%	84%
American Details →	TUL 08:58 → PHX 09:50AA 3434 · flown by Envoy	1h 24m Phoenix	PHX 11:14 → LAS 12:47AA 457	5h 49m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:54 → LAS 17:10DL 659	9h 06m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:40DL 919	8h 59m	98%	80%
United Details →	TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest	3h 29m Denver	DEN 16:13 → LAS 17:28UA 2424	7h 44m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m San Diego	SAN 17:15 → LAS 18:41AS 2018 · flown by Horizon	5h 34m	49%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON