tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 6286 at 17:05, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 6286 SkyWest TUL 17:05 LAX 18:35 15% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 12m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 30m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 8h 13m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 27m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 06m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 7h 34m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 18:48 → LAX 20:16DL 996 9h 35m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:02 → DFW 07:24AA 1090 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → LAX 12:09AA 3181 8h 07m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON