Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4690 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Safest bet that day YX 4690 TUL 05:37 → LGA 10:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4605 TUL 14:04 → LGA 18:29 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4690 Republic	TUL 05:37	LGA 10:03	7%	3%	2.2%	no record
YX 4605 Republic	TUL 14:04	LGA 18:29	29%	9%	1.6%	no record
DL 4631 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 07:00	LGA 11:11	32%	20%	4.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON