tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4726 at 06:21, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4726 Southwest TUL 06:21 MCO 09:59 3% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 2h 47m Houston IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310 7h 00m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292 6h 57m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 6h 00m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 39m Houston IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662 8h 04m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 3h 49m Houston IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496 8h 14m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150 5h 36m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 2h 06m Charlotte CLT 12:36 → MCO 14:26AA 2117 6h 26m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024 9h 01m 97% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON