Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4207 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4207 Southwest	TUL 05:16	MDW 07:12	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2643 Southwest	TUL 16:11	MDW 18:07	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	5h 56m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 11m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON