tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 02m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 12m Houston IAH 07:55 → MIA 11:33UA 2753 5h 33m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:32 → MIA 15:36UA 1418 8h 36m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 47m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:02 → DFW 07:24AA 1090 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219 5h 53m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 5h 51m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 5h 51m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 2h 59m Charlotte CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198 7h 36m 96% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON