Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2063 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2063 TUL 06:00 → ORD 08:03 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4057 TUL 19:35 → ORD 21:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2063 United	TUL 06:00	ORD 08:03	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3590 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 06:35	ORD 08:48	11%	3%	1.8%	85%
AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 10:49	ORD 12:50	16%	4%	2.1%	83%
OO 5442 SkyWest	TUL 09:54	ORD 11:57	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4098 Envoy	TUL 15:58	ORD 17:59	28%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 19:35	ORD 21:32	28%	6%	1.6%	50%
UA 4483 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 18:20	ORD 20:30	29%	10%	5.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON