Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4208 at 10:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4208 TUL 10:26 → PHX 11:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3645 TUL 18:35 → PHX 19:13 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4208 Southwest	TUL 10:26	PHX 11:05	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3434 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 08:58	PHX 09:50	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
MQ 3645 Envoy	TUL 18:35	PHX 19:13	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON