tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2220 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record TUL 18:09 SEA 20:17 27% 10% 0.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 8h 45m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 8h 35m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 3h 17m Houston IAH 10:00 → SEA 12:47UA 2205 9h 47m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 8h 15m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714 9h 30m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 1h 58m Charlotte CLT 12:28 → SEA 15:21AA 506 10h 21m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Denver DEN 08:03 → SEA 09:53UA 1348 5h 53m 95% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON