Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 4006 at 08:00, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4006 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 08:00	SLC 09:55	4%	2%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa	3h 19m Houston	IAH 10:02 → SLC 12:37UA 2242	8h 37m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 10m	96%	88%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SLC 09:37UA 497	4h 37m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 14m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	8h 21m	97%	84%
United Details →	TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa	3h 38m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	8h 40m	100%	80%
American Details →	TUL 06:02 → DFW 07:24AA 1090	1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:01 → SLC 11:04AA 1878	6h 02m	96%	80%
American Details →	TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 10:20 → SLC 12:51AA 3258	7h 16m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON