Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4210 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4210 TUS 06:46 → DEN 09:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4249 TUS 15:01 → DEN 18:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4210 Southwest	TUS 06:46	DEN 09:48	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1540 United	TUS 05:15	DEN 08:20	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2254 Southwest	TUS 10:16	DEN 13:18	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1656 United	TUS 09:44	DEN 12:52	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3697 Southwest	TUS 12:01	DEN 15:04	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5860 SkyWest	TUS 17:42	DEN 20:52	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2089 United	TUS 13:40	DEN 16:49	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4249 Southwest	TUS 15:01	DEN 18:05	22%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON