Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2193 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2193 TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 584 TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2193 American Flight history →	TUS 05:01	DFW 09:27	5%	2%	1.0%	93%
AA 2555 American Flight history →	TUS 06:54	DFW 11:19	7%	3%	0.9%	96%
AA 1809 American	TUS 07:54	DFW 12:19	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1014 American Flight history →	TUS 09:30	DFW 13:52	13%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 2187 American	TUS 11:52	DFW 16:25	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2926 American Flight history →	TUS 13:18	DFW 17:50	22%	8%	0.9%	72%
AA 584 American Flight history →	TUS 15:57	DFW 20:29	24%	11%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON