Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 1–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2279 Southwest	TUS 05:11	LAS 06:44	1%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3496 Southwest	TUS 09:16	LAS 10:50	10%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TUS 08:47 → PHX 09:56AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Phoenix	PHX 11:14 → LAS 12:47AA 457	4h 00m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659	4h 56m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06AS 778	6h 35m	98%	78%
American Details →	TUS 10:15 → PHX 11:23AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Phoenix	PHX 13:56 → LAS 15:17AA 2631	5h 02m	99%	77%
American Details →	TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → LAS 11:52AA 1482	6h 51m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:30 → LAS 15:55DL 1672	4h 39m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 11:00 → LAS 12:12DL 1696	5h 52m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955	7h 07m	88%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON