Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6393 TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OO 3906 TUS 16:45 → LAX 18:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6393 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:02	LAX 07:46	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 3502 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:20	LAX 08:00	11%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 1817 Southwest	TUS 09:41	LAX 11:25	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 6296 SkyWest	TUS 10:27	LAX 12:10	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3904 SkyWest	TUS 12:30	LAX 14:14	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3906 SkyWest	TUS 16:45	LAX 18:29	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON