Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5575 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 5575 SkyWest	TUS 06:44	ORD 12:21	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2537 American Flight history →	TUS 12:21	ORD 18:17	32%	10%	0.8%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa	2h 44m Houston	IAH 13:57 → ORD 16:47UA 1299	8h 10m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	9h 45m	97%	80%
American Details →	TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 09:30 → ORD 15:48AA 2998	7h 46m	98%	78%
United Details →	TUS 10:55 → IAH 15:29UA 4045 · flown by Mesa	3h 15m Houston	IAH 18:44 → ORD 21:40UA 2197	8h 45m	100%	77%
American Details →	TUS 08:47 → PHX 09:56AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	2h 19m Phoenix	PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338	7h 21m	100%	75%
American Details →	TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:26 → ORD 14:00AA 1285	6h 59m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 11:24 → ORD 17:35DL 2368	9h 15m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:00 → ATL 12:38DL 886	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	9h 12m	98%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON