Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2216 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	TUS 10:31	PDX 13:46	2%	0%	0.0%	98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	5h 05m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 02m	99%	88%
American Details →	TUS 10:15 → PHX 11:23AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Phoenix	PHX 14:19 → PDX 17:17AA 1625	7h 02m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766	6h 00m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	TUS 14:29 → SEA 17:44AS 641	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	6h 53m	98%	80%
United Details →	TUS 07:09 → SFO 09:34UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m San Francisco	SFO 12:37 → PDX 14:33UA 2851	7h 24m	98%	78%
American Details →	TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:18 → PDX 13:34AA 2496	8h 33m	97%	77%
American Details →	TUS 08:47 → PHX 09:56AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	51m Phoenix	PHX 10:47 → PDX 13:46AA 2684	4h 59m	88%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON