Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3247 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3247 TUS 07:46 → PHX 08:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 951 TUS 17:16 → PHX 18:21 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3247 Southwest	TUS 07:46	PHX 08:51	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4888 SkyWest	TUS 06:43	PHX 07:48	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 08:47	PHX 09:56	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 6514 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 10:15	PHX 11:23	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
OO 6370 SkyWest	TUS 12:06	PHX 13:13	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	TUS 15:15	PHX 16:25	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 6332 SkyWest	TUS 13:46	PHX 14:51	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 6207 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 16:56	PHX 18:01	19%	7%	0.6%	70%
WN 951 Southwest	TUS 17:16	PHX 18:21	21%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON