tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 280 at 06:21, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 280 Southwest TUS 06:21 SAN 07:54 7% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 03m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → TUS 10:15 → PHX 11:23AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Phoenix PHX 14:19 → SAN 15:45AA 1951 5h 30m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 6h 50m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon 1h 16m Portland PDX 15:02 → SAN 17:30AS 425 6h 59m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → TUS 08:47 → PHX 09:56AA 3958 · flown by Envoy 53m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → SAN 12:25AA 2122 3h 38m 89% 70%
UnitedDetails → TUS 07:09 → SFO 09:34UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 6h 59m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 6h 44m 84% 68%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:13 → SAN 12:25AA 3109 7h 24m 97% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON