Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3679 TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 641 TUS 14:29 → SEA 17:44 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3679 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:53	SEA 15:23	13%	5%	0.5%	88%
OO 3159 SkyWest	TUS 06:57	SEA 10:20	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 641 Alaska Flight history →	TUS 14:29	SEA 17:44	21%	4%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON