Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4683 TUS 07:09 → SFO 09:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest UA 6006 TUS 15:30 → SFO 17:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:09	SFO 09:34	23%	12%	0.5%	65%
UA 5583 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 13:14	SFO 15:39	26%	13%	0.5%	76%
UA 6006 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 15:30	SFO 17:55	28%	15%	0.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON