Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3745 TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest OO 3822 TUS 16:35 → SLC 19:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3745 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:05	SLC 10:07	3%	2%	0.5%	98%
DL 3718 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:16	SLC 14:13	5%	3%	0.5%	97%
OO 3822 SkyWest	TUS 16:35	SLC 19:37	7%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON