Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	1h 34m Detroit	DTW 09:26 → ATL 11:34DL 3175	4h 49m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	7h 29m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 23m Detroit	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	6h 38m	100%	89%
United Details →	TVC 08:53 → ORD 09:18UA 3713 · flown by Republic	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 12:18 → ATL 15:26UA 2779	6h 33m	98%	82%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 28m Denver	DEN 17:55 → ATL 23:11UA 248	7h 43m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON