Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1264 at 11:40, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1264 JetBlue Flight history →	TVC 11:40	BOS 13:56	21%	10%	1.1%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 15m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	8h 25m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	5h 44m	100%	77%
United Details →	TVC 08:53 → ORD 09:18UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606	5h 14m	93%	74%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 13m Denver	DEN 17:40 → BOS 23:44UA 1356	8h 16m	87%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON