Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 4400 at 13:50, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4400 Republic	TVC 13:50	DCA 16:05	14%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 08m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	4h 43m	98%	86%
United Details →	TVC 08:53 → ORD 09:18UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	5h 29m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:55 → DCA 16:34DL 1454	6h 09m	100%	77%
JetBlue Details →	TVC 11:40 → BOS 13:56B6 1264	2h 18m Boston	BOS 16:14 → DCA 18:00B6 1355	6h 20m	94%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON