Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1306 at 15:28, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1306 United Flight history →	TVC 15:28	DEN 16:27	18%	5%	0.6%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:53 → ORD 09:18UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 10:56 → DEN 12:36UA 2857	5h 43m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	5h 20m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	48m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 02m	87%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON