Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 16:11, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4199 Envoy	TVC 16:11	DFW 18:03	15%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:53 → ORD 09:18UA 3713 · flown by Republic	3h 47m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → DFW 15:48UA 2290	7h 55m	98%	78%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 26m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 31m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041	5h 07m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON