Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via O'Hare, leaving 08:53, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:53 → ORD 09:18UA 3713 · flown by Republic	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	7h 47m	98%	83%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 41m Denver	DEN 18:08 → IAH 21:40UA 1055	7h 12m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	48m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	4h 52m	87%	77%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	50m Detroit	DTW 12:26 → IAH 14:19DL 1307	4h 54m	83%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON