Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 13:36, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 13:36	MSP 14:14	12%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 4915 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TVC 18:35	MSP 19:14	40%	26%	0.0%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 09m	94%	86%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 18m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	7h 22m	97%	82%
United Details →	TVC 08:53 → ORD 09:18UA 3713 · flown by Republic	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 12:36 → MSP 14:09UA 467	6h 16m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON