Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2271 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2271 TVC 06:00 → ORD 06:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5865 TVC 18:02 → ORD 18:24 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2271 United	TVC 06:00	ORD 06:26	10%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 3713 United flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 08:53	ORD 09:18	13%	3%	1.5%	47%
UA 346 United	TVC 10:25	ORD 10:50	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
OO 4900 SkyWest	TVC 07:48	ORD 08:10	20%	8%	2.1%	no record
OO 6298 SkyWest	TVC 10:54	ORD 11:16	25%	8%	1.6%	no record
OO 5839 SkyWest	TVC 11:57	ORD 12:19	26%	8%	1.6%	no record
OO 6209 SkyWest	TVC 14:53	ORD 15:15	29%	12%	1.8%	no record
OO 6297 SkyWest	TVC 19:27	ORD 19:49	31%	11%	2.3%	no record
OO 5592 SkyWest	TVC 14:03	ORD 14:25	32%	10%	2.0%	no record
OO 5865 SkyWest	TVC 18:02	ORD 18:24	37%	11%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON