Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	5h 01m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	6h 18m	100%	83%
United Details →	TVC 08:53 → ORD 09:18UA 3713 · flown by Republic	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	5h 54m	98%	81%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 27m Denver	DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510	8h 02m	95%	75%
JetBlue Details →	TVC 11:40 → BOS 13:56B6 1264	2h 12m Boston	BOS 16:08 → PHL 17:47B6 2459	6h 07m	93%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON