Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4214 Southwest	TYS 07:16	BNA 07:24	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1826 Southwest	TYS 19:26	BNA 19:34	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069	4h 01m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002	4h 39m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	4h 29m	99%	86%
American Details →	TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont	1h 41m Charlotte	CLT 12:06 → BNA 12:38AA 2409	4h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	4h 55m	94%	85%
American Details →	TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:23AA 5641 · flown by PSA	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 13:06 → BNA 13:39AA 538	6h 22m	100%	84%
United Details →	TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 00m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366	4h 44m	91%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490	3h 58m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont	51m Philadelphia	PHL 21:30 → BNA 22:46AA 2277	5h 09m	67%	52%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:02 → LGA 13:07DL 5113 · flown by Endeavor	48m New York	LGA 13:55 → BNA 15:31DL 2748	5h 29m	63%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON