Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4215 at 08:21, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4215 Southwest	TYS 08:21	BWI 10:22	3%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	5h 07m	98%	90%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 08:14 → BWI 09:59AA 1216	4h 59m	95%	88%
American Details →	TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → BWI 14:10AA 2733	5h 14m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	5h 18m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 26m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:41 → DTW 13:30DL 5341 · flown by Endeavor	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	5h 00m	93%	81%
American Details →	TYS 11:03 → CLT 12:24AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont	3h 47m Charlotte	CLT 16:11 → BWI 17:54AA 3121	6h 51m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	5h 32m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON