Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5103 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day OH 5103 TYS 06:12 → CLT 07:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5584 TYS 18:05 → CLT 19:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5103 PSA	TYS 06:12	CLT 07:18	9%	6%	2.2%	no record
AA 5641 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 08:17	CLT 09:23	13%	6%	2.0%	82%
OH 5584 PSA	TYS 18:05	CLT 19:11	19%	7%	1.9%	no record
AA 5953 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 13:00	CLT 14:26	10%	5%	0.0%	90%
AA 5950 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 11:03	CLT 12:24	11%	6%	0.0%	89%
AA 5947 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 08:56	CLT 10:25	12%	2%	0.0%	88%
AA 5954 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 05:00	CLT 06:23	12%	5%	0.0%	88%
AA 5831 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 16:07	CLT 17:33	29%	9%	0.0%	71%
AA 5957 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 20:05	CLT 21:32	43%	7%	3.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON