Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2819 at 13:51, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2819 Southwest	TYS 13:51	DAL 15:08	12%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	4h 41m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 20m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 57m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	4h 49m	90%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON