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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 4h 49m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 1h 56m Charlotte CLT 08:19 → EWR 10:18AA 1707 5h 18m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 56m Minneapolis MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895 6h 11m 91% 79%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:23AA 5641 · flown by PSA 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697 4h 24m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 59m Dulles IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 4h 10m 91% 77%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 4h 46m 89% 76%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 41m 83% 72%
UnitedDetails → TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet 48m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 5h 21m 86% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON