Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 4432 at 13:47, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4432 TYS 13:47 → LGA 16:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4432 Republic	TYS 13:47	LGA 16:02	19%	10%	1.1%	no record
DL 5116 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 06:00	LGA 08:04	9%	4%	4.4%	91%
DL 5113 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 11:02	LGA 13:06	20%	10%	9.1%	80%
DL 5455 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 17:35	LGA 19:44	26%	16%	8.1%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON