Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 747 at 12:51, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 747 Southwest	TYS 12:51	MCO 14:38	9%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	4h 16m	98%	90%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 08:24 → MCO 10:09AA 2170	5h 09m	95%	84%
United Details →	TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379	5h 23m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208	6h 55m	93%	84%
American Details →	TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:23AA 5641 · flown by PSA	1h 27m Charlotte	CLT 10:50 → MCO 12:34AA 1576	4h 17m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 25m	94%	82%
American Details →	TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 12:36 → MCO 14:26AA 2117	5h 30m	98%	82%
American Details →	TYS 07:00 → DCA 08:50AA 5149 · flown by PSA	2h 11m Washington	DCA 11:01 → MCO 13:33AA 1153	6h 33m	95%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TYS 07:15 → IAH 08:40UA 6298 · flown by Mesa	50m Houston	IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310	5h 45m	63%	56%
Delta Details →	TYS 13:59 → ATL 15:08DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	52m Atlanta	ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742	3h 48m	67%	53%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor	47m Detroit	DTW 18:37 → MCO 21:13DL 1274	5h 14m	63%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON