tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3079 at 06:03, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3079 American TYS 06:03 MIA 08:26 10% 4% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 17m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 50m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 09:02 → MIA 11:08AA 3184 6h 08m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:23AA 5641 · flown by PSA 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 4h 54m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 5h 34m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219 7h 18m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 27m 93% 78%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198 6h 40m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TYS 16:07 → CLT 17:33AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 55m Charlotte CLT 18:28 → MIA 20:34AA 400 4h 27m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON