Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1553 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1553 TYS 06:00 → ORD 07:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4105 TYS 16:58 → ORD 18:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1553 United	TYS 06:00	ORD 07:00	10%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 1577 United	TYS 10:42	ORD 11:43	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3716 Envoy	TYS 08:10	ORD 09:10	19%	5%	1.8%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	TYS 20:18	ORD 21:16	21%	6%	1.4%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	TYS 11:39	ORD 12:34	24%	5%	2.1%	no record
OO 5869 SkyWest	TYS 18:05	ORD 19:03	27%	8%	1.4%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	TYS 16:58	ORD 18:00	31%	8%	2.2%	no record
UA 4584 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 10:18	ORD 11:23	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON