Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5620 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16%.

Safest bet that day AA 5620 TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest PT 5935 TYS 18:12 → PHL 20:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5620 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 06:00	PHL 07:56	5%	4%	0.8%	86%
PT 6079 Piedmont	TYS 12:39	PHL 14:42	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5165 PSA	TYS 16:30	PHL 18:28	16%	8%	0.8%	no record
PT 5935 Piedmont	TYS 18:12	PHL 20:15	16%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON