Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1100 at 16:41, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1100 Southwest	VPS 16:41	BWI 20:20	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	6h 01m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 32m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:43 → ATL 13:56DL 2048	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	4h 32m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	5h 41m	98%	83%
American Details →	VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04AA 2185	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → BWI 14:10AA 2733	5h 55m	98%	83%
American Details →	VPS 07:17 → DFW 09:29AA 2560	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:45 → BWI 15:02AA 2669	6h 45m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON