Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2185 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2185 VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5201 VPS 18:08 → CLT 20:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2185 American Flight history →	VPS 07:15	CLT 10:04	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
OH 5069 PSA	VPS 12:57	CLT 15:38	19%	4%	2.3%	no record
OH 5077 PSA	VPS 16:52	CLT 19:33	19%	6%	3.4%	no record
AA 5201 American flown by PSA Flight history →	VPS 18:08	CLT 20:49	22%	6%	3.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON