tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, G4 403 at 09:07, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G4 403 Allegiant VPS 09:07 CVG 12:10 13% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 4h 25m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149 4h 28m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248 5h 16m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:43 → ATL 13:56DL 2048 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → CVG 17:16DL 1008 4h 33m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169 4h 50m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:17 → DFW 09:29AA 2560 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → CVG 14:15AA 3305 5h 58m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04AA 2185 56m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → CVG 12:29AA 1533 4h 14m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:27 → CVG 20:53AA 799 7h 35m 97% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON