Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 4110 at 12:27, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4110 Envoy	VPS 12:27	DCA 15:53	17%	4%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 27m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	4h 47m	98%	85%
American Details →	VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy	1h 12m Miami	MIA 09:58 → DCA 12:43AA 1612	5h 43m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 35m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	6h 22m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	5h 02m	96%	73%
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	6h 26m	80%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON