Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4874 at 12:36, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4874 Southwest	VPS 12:36	HOU 14:26	10%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 01m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:13 → HOU 13:20DL 1195	6h 20m	100%	88%
American Details →	VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460	3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 30m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON